Identification of the Mathematical Model of Tuberculosis and HIV Co-Infection Dynamics

Identification of the Mathematical Model of Tuberculosis and HIV Co-Infection Dynamics Full article

Journal

Mathematics
, E-ISSN: 2227-7390

Output data

Year: 2024, Volume: 12, Number: 23, Article number : 3636, Pages count : 17 DOI: 10.3390/math12233636

Tags

mathematical model; epidemiology; tuberculosis and HIV co-infection; inverse problem; identifiability; optimization; forecasting; control

Authors

Kabanikhin Sergey ¹ , Krivorotko Olga ¹ , Neverov Andrei ¹ , Kaminskiy Grigoriy ² , Semenova Olga ³

Affiliations

1	Sobolev Institute of Mathematics SB RAS
2	State Health Organization Tula Regional Center for Control and Prevention of AIDS and Infectious Diseases
3	Federal State Budgetary Institution “Novosibirsk TB Research Institute” of the Ministry of Health Russian Federation

Funding (1)

Sobolev Institute of Mathematics

FWNF-2024-0002

This paper proposes and analyzes a mathematical model of tuberculosis and HIV co-infection that specifies for Russian Federation regions, based on mass balance law and described by eight ordinary differential equations. A sensitivity-based identifiability analysis of this mathematical model was performed, which revealed the sensitivity of the averaged parameters of the models to statistical real data of infectious individuals based on the Sobol method. The problem of identifying the sensitive epidemiological parameters (contagiousness, the rate of tuberculosis activation, additional mortality rate, etc.) for the model was reduced to the problem of minimization of the quadratic misfit function. The numerical results of the modeling of the number of people expected to be infected with tuberculosis and HIV were shown and discussed for the Sverdlovsk and Moscow regions of the Russian Federation. It has been shown that increasing the capacity of the medical system by 10% will make it possible to reduce the number of diagnosed cases of active tuberculosis by 2 times over the next 3 years in some regions of Russian Federation.

Kabanikhin S. , Krivorotko O. , Neverov A. , Kaminskiy G. , Semenova O.
Identification of the Mathematical Model of Tuberculosis and HIV Co-Infection Dynamics
Mathematics. 2024. V.12. N23. 3636 :1-17. DOI: 10.3390/math12233636 WOS Scopus РИНЦ OpenAlex

Submitted:	Oct 25, 2024
Accepted:	Nov 18, 2024
Published online:	Nov 21, 2024
Published print:	Nov 22, 2024

Web of science:	WOS:001376435600001
Scopus:	2-s2.0-85211772736
Elibrary:	79350728
OpenAlex:	W4404592442

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