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Identification of the Mathematical Model of Tuberculosis and HIV Co-Infection Dynamics Научная публикация

Журнал

Mathematics
, E-ISSN: 2227-7390

Вых. Данные

Год: 2024, Том: 12, Номер: 23, Номер статьи : 3636, Страниц : 17 DOI: 10.3390/math12233636

Ключевые слова

mathematical model; epidemiology; tuberculosis and HIV co-infection; inverse problem; identifiability; optimization; forecasting; control

Авторы

Kabanikhin Sergey ¹ , Krivorotko Olga ¹ , Neverov Andrei ¹ , Kaminskiy Grigoriy ² , Semenova Olga ³

Организации

1	Sobolev Institute of Mathematics SB RAS
2	State Health Organization Tula Regional Center for Control and Prevention of AIDS and Infectious Diseases
3	Federal State Budgetary Institution “Novosibirsk TB Research Institute” of the Ministry of Health Russian Federation

Информация о финансировании (1)

Институт математики им. С.Л. Соболева СО РАН

FWNF-2024-0002

This paper proposes and analyzes a mathematical model of tuberculosis and HIV co-infection that specifies for Russian Federation regions, based on mass balance law and described by eight ordinary differential equations. A sensitivity-based identifiability analysis of this mathematical model was performed, which revealed the sensitivity of the averaged parameters of the models to statistical real data of infectious individuals based on the Sobol method. The problem of identifying the sensitive epidemiological parameters (contagiousness, the rate of tuberculosis activation, additional mortality rate, etc.) for the model was reduced to the problem of minimization of the quadratic misfit function. The numerical results of the modeling of the number of people expected to be infected with tuberculosis and HIV were shown and discussed for the Sverdlovsk and Moscow regions of the Russian Federation. It has been shown that increasing the capacity of the medical system by 10% will make it possible to reduce the number of diagnosed cases of active tuberculosis by 2 times over the next 3 years in some regions of Russian Federation.

Kabanikhin S. , Krivorotko O. , Neverov A. , Kaminskiy G. , Semenova O.
Identification of the Mathematical Model of Tuberculosis and HIV Co-Infection Dynamics
Mathematics. 2024. V.12. N23. 3636 :1-17. DOI: 10.3390/math12233636 WOS Scopus OpenAlex

Поступила в редакцию:	25 окт. 2024 г.
Принята к публикации:	18 нояб. 2024 г.
Опубликована online:	21 нояб. 2024 г.

Web of science:	WOS:001376435600001
Scopus:	2-s2.0-85211772736
OpenAlex:	W4404592442

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