The Forecasting of the Spread of Infectious Diseases Based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks Full article
| Journal |
Mathematics
, E-ISSN: 2227-7390 |
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| Output data | Year: 2024, Volume: 12, Number: 19, Article number : 3044, Pages count : 22 DOI: 10.3390/math12193044 | ||
| Tags | generative adversarial networks; conditional GANs; regularization; deep learning; time series; COVID-19; forecasting | ||
| Authors |
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| Affiliations |
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Funding (1)
| 1 | Sobolev Institute of Mathematics | FWNF-2024-0002 |
Abstract:
New epidemics encourage the development of new mathematical models of the spread and forecasting of infectious diseases. Statistical epidemiology data are characterized by incomplete and inexact time series, which leads to an unstable and non-unique forecasting of infectious diseases. In this paper, a model of a conditional generative adversarial neural network (CGAN) for modeling and forecasting COVID-19 in St. Petersburg is constructed. It takes 20 processed historical statistics as a condition and is based on the solution of the minimax problem. The CGAN builds a short-term forecast of the number of newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases in the region for 5 days ahead. The CGANapproach allows modeling the distribution of statistical data, which allows obtaining the required amount of training data from the resulting distribution. When comparing the forecasting results with the classical differential SEIR-HCD model and a recurrent neural network with the same input parameters, it was shown that the forecast errors of all three models are in the same range. It is shown that the prediction error of the bagging model based on three models is lower than the results of each model separately
Cite:
Krivorotko O.
, Zyatkov N.
The Forecasting of the Spread of Infectious Diseases Based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks
Mathematics. 2024. V.12. N19. 3044 :1-22. DOI: 10.3390/math12193044 WOS Scopus РИНЦ OpenAlex
The Forecasting of the Spread of Infectious Diseases Based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks
Mathematics. 2024. V.12. N19. 3044 :1-22. DOI: 10.3390/math12193044 WOS Scopus РИНЦ OpenAlex
Dates:
| Submitted: | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Accepted: | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Published print: | Sep 28, 2024 |
Identifiers:
| Web of science: | WOS:001331868700001 |
| Scopus: | 2-s2.0-85206578737 |
| Elibrary: | 74187626 |
| OpenAlex: | W4402991258 |
Citing:
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