Understanding street protests: from a mathematical model to protest management

Understanding street protests: from a mathematical model to protest management Full article

Journal

PLoS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203

Output data

Year: 2025, Volume: 20, Number: 4, Article number : e0319837, Pages count : 12 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0319837

Authors

Petrovskii Sergei ^1,2 , Shishlenin Maxim ³ , Glukhov Anton ³

Affiliations

1	Peoples Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 6 Miklukho-Maklaya Str., 117198 Moscow, Russia.
2	School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
3	Sobolev Institute of Mathematics, Novosibirsk, Russia.

Street protests have been a common feature of human society for many centuries. They often act as a driver of social changes but they may also disrupt everyday life and lead to considerable economic losses. Understanding of factors that may affect the duration of street protests and the number of participants is a problem of pivotal importance. Mathematical modelling is an efficient research approach to study this problem. Here we present a novel modelling framework that takes into account heterogeneity of protesters behaviour and the effect of policing. Using the 2018–2019 Yellow Vest Movement in France as a case study, we show that our model is in a very good agreement with data. We also show that a moderate increase in the efficiency of police actions on particular days may have a significant effect on protest’s intensity and duration. Our findings open a possibility for a more efficient protests management.

Petrovskii S. , Shishlenin M. , Glukhov A.
Understanding street protests: from a mathematical model to protest management
PLoS ONE. 2025. V.20. N4. e0319837 :1-12. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0319837 Scopus OpenAlex

Submitted:	Oct 15, 2024
Accepted:	Feb 7, 2025
Published print:	Apr 10, 2025
Published online:	Apr 10, 2025

Scopus:	2-s2.0-105002395088
OpenAlex:	W4409318147

Пока нет цитирований