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Understanding street protests: from a mathematical model to protest management Научная публикация

Журнал PLoS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
Вых. Данные Год: 2025, Том: 20, Номер: 4, Номер статьи : e0319837, Страниц : 12 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0319837
Авторы Petrovskii Sergei 1,2 , Shishlenin Maxim 3 , Glukhov Anton 3
Организации
1 Peoples Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 6 Miklukho-Maklaya Str., 117198 Moscow, Russia.
2 School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
3 Sobolev Institute of Mathematics, Novosibirsk, Russia.

Реферат: Street protests have been a common feature of human society for many centuries. They often act as a driver of social changes but they may also disrupt everyday life and lead to considerable economic losses. Understanding of factors that may affect the duration of street protests and the number of participants is a problem of pivotal importance. Mathematical modelling is an efficient research approach to study this problem. Here we present a novel modelling framework that takes into account heterogeneity of protesters behaviour and the effect of policing. Using the 2018–2019 Yellow Vest Movement in France as a case study, we show that our model is in a very good agreement with data. We also show that a moderate increase in the efficiency of police actions on particular days may have a significant effect on protest’s intensity and duration. Our findings open a possibility for a more efficient protests management.
Библиографическая ссылка: Petrovskii S. , Shishlenin M. , Glukhov A.
Understanding street protests: from a mathematical model to protest management
PLoS ONE. 2025. V.20. N4. e0319837 :1-12. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0319837 Scopus OpenAlex
Даты:
Поступила в редакцию: 15 окт. 2024 г.
Принята к публикации: 7 февр. 2025 г.
Опубликована в печати: 10 апр. 2025 г.
Опубликована online: 10 апр. 2025 г.
Идентификаторы БД:
Scopus: 2-s2.0-105002395088
OpenAlex: W4409318147
Цитирование в БД: Пока нет цитирований
Альметрики: